Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 1.315293 1.382660 1.452359 1.530012 1.614299 1.703229 1.804423
2025-11-16 1.197323 1.290846 1.391523 1.508541 1.641559 1.788958 1.965903
2025-11-23 1.131721 1.241030 1.361924 1.506658 1.676721 1.872121 2.116464
2025-11-30 1.088061 1.209703 1.347244 1.516016 1.719994 1.961866 2.275565
2025-12-07 1.037650 1.166064 1.313795 1.498656 1.727225 2.005386 2.377420
2025-12-14 0.988695 1.120778 1.274900 1.470919 1.717971 2.025376 2.447697
2025-12-21 0.951864 1.087714 1.248324 1.455719 1.721892 2.060223 2.537370
2025-12-28 0.932811 1.074865 1.245125 1.468537 1.760877 2.141161 2.693230
2026-01-04 0.908836 1.054648 1.231461 1.466688 1.779716 2.195293 2.814485
2026-01-11 0.894334 1.045349 1.230680 1.480796 1.819586 2.279242 2.983707
2026-01-18 0.874059 1.027846 1.218490 1.478917 1.837066 2.332236 3.110280
2026-01-25 0.853690 1.009388 1.204169 1.473216 1.848429 2.376397 3.225805
2026-02-01 0.827013 0.982526 1.178642 1.452198 1.838487 2.390727 3.298592
2026-02-08 0.802237 0.957398 1.154561 1.432160 1.828883 2.404834 3.372037
2026-02-15 0.786299 0.943187 1.144272 1.430436 1.845097 2.457996 3.513513
2026-02-22 0.775346 0.935075 1.141679 1.439069 1.876456 2.535709 3.703199
2026-03-01 0.755861 0.915053 1.122300 1.423052 1.870142 2.553668 3.789360
2026-03-08 0.733897 0.891141 1.096905 1.397444 1.848065 2.544943 3.826195
2026-03-15 0.717179 0.873826 1.080010 1.383402 1.842814 2.562817 3.913052
2026-03-22 0.710405 0.869678 1.081024 1.395243 1.877700 2.648262 4.135178
2026-03-29 0.699329 0.859362 1.073100 1.393535 1.891117 2.698291 4.293483
2026-04-05 0.693710 0.856306 1.075158 1.406565 1.928266 2.790845 4.547013
2026-04-12 0.683517 0.846678 1.067621 1.404830 1.941419 2.842197 4.720955